Its NWSL playoffs time y’all. Here are your final NWSL standings and each teams chances of lifting the championship trophy in Louisville on November 20th, 2021. For an explanation of how the playoffs work and the order of the tiebreakers, click here. For an explanation of how the nerds get down, click here.
1. Portland Thorns (1st Round Bye)
Season Stats: 44 points | 24 games | +16 Goal Differential
Next Game: Winner of 4 v 5, Home , November 14th, Paramount+
FiveThirtyEight Championship Odds: 32%
The Portland Thorns led in the NWSL standings almost all year, picked up the NWSL Shield, and had the highest goal differential in the league. They are missing Crystal Dunn but have Sophia Smith and a lot of very good players that still can get the job done. Even though they are the top seed, the nerds have them penciled into the finals as the second best team in the playoffs with the second best chance to win it all.
2. OL Reign (1st Round Bye)
Season Stats: 42 points | 24 games | +13 Goal Differential
Next Game: Winner of 3 v 6, Home, November 14th, Paramount+
FiveThirtyEight Championship Odds: 33%
The OL Reign finished the season strong after firing their coach, and almost caught the Thorns for the NWSL shield. They have a good mix of veterans, like Megan Rapinoe, but also have a young group of players led by Rose Lavelle that fill out their ranks with talent and playmaking ability. The nerds have Reign penciled into the finals as the best team in the league and have a slightly better chance than the Thorns to win the title.
3. Washington Spirit
39 points | 24 games | +3 Goal Differential
Next Game: North Carolina Courage, Home, November 7th, 5:30pm EST, Paramount+
FiveThirtyEight Championship Odds: 12%
The Washington Spirit had an up and down season, on and off the field. Trinity Rodman is probably the NWSL Rookie of the Year and her partnership with Golden Boot winner Ashley Hatch is whats going to carry this team. The nerds have the Spirit as the team most likely to make the semis and the only other team with a double digit probability of winning the title.
4. Chicago Red Stars
38 points | 24 games | 0 Goal Differential
Next Game: Gotham FC, Home, November 7th, 3pm EST, Paramount+
FiveThirtyEight Championship Odds: 9%
The Chicago Red Stars looked like a playoff team in the NWSL standings for most of the year but had some defensive problems along the way. Mal Pugh and Kealia Watt up front is a problem for any defense and there are goals in this team, but can the trio of Tierna Davidson, Casey Short Krueger and Sarah Gorden gel at the right. The nerds think that Chicago is the worst team remaining in the playoffs but they still have a better chance of Gotham and North Carolina to win it all and the second best chance to make the semis. The nerds really believe in home field advantage.
5. Gotham FC
35 points | 24 games | +8 Goal Differential
Next Game: Chicago Red Stars, Away, November 7th, 3pm EST, Paramount+
FiveThirtyEight Championship Odds: 8%
Gotham FC backed into the playoffs but they got in. Midge Purce and co. can put together absolutely fantastic football at times but also have stretches where they cant put the ball in the back of the net despite dominating play. The nerds think they are a better team than both Chicago and North Carolina, but give them slightly unfavorable odds to win their quarterfinal away game, slim odds to win their away game, and even slimmer odds to win it all.
6. North Carolina Courage
33 points | 24 games | +5 Goal Differential
Next Game : Washington Spirit, Away, November 7th, 5:30pm EST, Paramount+
FiveThirtyEight Championship Odds: 7%
The North Carolina Courage barely got into the playoffs, being another team with a rough offseason off the field. Debinha and Lynn Williams always have the juice to get it done and no one wants to face this seasoned team in the playoffs. The nerds dont give the Courage a chance to do anything in the playoffs, but if there is a team that has an upset (or three) in them its the Courage.
NWSL Playoffs Quarterfinal Predictions
Match 1
Washington Spirit v North Carolina Courage
Prediction: Washington Spirit 2-0
The Spirit are coming in on a four game winning streak and the Courage haven’t won a game in a month. The Courage had wildly successful period of success over the years but they were already on a downward turn before their coach was removed for his sexual misconduct over the years. There are younger, more ascendent teams in the league like Washington and a first round exit for the Courage is in line with their downward trajectory.
Match 2
Chicago Red Stars v Gotham FC
Prediction: Chicago Red Stars 2-1
Gotham is a team thats very capable of winning an away game in the NWSL playoffs under the right conditions, but heading into Chicago (well Bridgeview, IL) to play a team in pretty good form isn’t one of them. The Red Stars have only lost one home game all year and while Gotham has firepower, they’ve drawn their last three games and its hard to pick a team so hot and cold.
